Cussedness
The natural cussedness of things in general.
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Reckoning With Risk by Gerd Gigerenzer
In chapter three of Reckoning With Risk, Gigerenzer recites a famous quotation, habitually attributed to H.G. Wells, by way of justification for his book:
Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write.
Perhaps Wells was being unduly optimistic. That day has not yet arrived: most people (myself included) get away from school without understanding the most basic statistical principles. Gigerenzer is not labouring under any illusion as to our abilities as statistical thinkers, and he expands on themes dealt with in works like John Allen Paulos’s excellent Innumeracy to reveal some worrying areas of general ignorance. Whilst one can just about forgive the average arts graduate for not knowing their sensitivity from their specificity, it requires a bit more leniency to let modern medical practitioners off the same hook. The fact that most doctors questioned in the research referenced here frequently get their numbers spectacularly wrong is rather terrifying.
Fortunately, Gigerenzer doesn’t just detail what is missing from most people’s mathematical knowledge, he presents a set of tools with which the average product of the education system can easily patch up their abilities in order to assess the confusing technicalities, economies of truth, and outright lies presented to us by scientists, doctors, journalists, advertisers, criminals, politicians, and all the other variably trustworthy sources of information in the modern world. Don’t let the self-help-ish title put you off. Reckoning With Risk is a rigorous, readable work which aims to teach the reader how to approach statistical data and arguments with an unclouded mind.